The Week Ahead: Beige Book, Treasury Auctions, Trade Balance
Posted To: MBS CommentarySeptember began on a strong note last week as the Dow jumped almost 3%, or 297 points. Whether the strength continues this week could depend on the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the economy (Wednesday) and trade balance figures (Thursday), but there isn’t much data on tap so technical factors may motivate the market . So far, it appears investors aren’t so optimistic. Stock futures are falling and interest rates are rallying. One hour before the opening bell, S&P 500 futures are down 7.50 points to 1,096.00 and Dow futures are 60 points lower at 10,376. The 2-year Treasury note is +0-02 at 99-25 yielding 0.49% and the 10-year Treasury note is +0-20 at 99-27 yielding 2.643%. The October delivery FNCL 4.0 is +0-08 at 102-22. Key Events in the Week Ahead: Tuesday: No economic…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Want a vacation? Deals are everywhere
The recession has produced phenomenal travel opportunities. Here’s how to find them.

Home, condo rentals trim vacation costs
Renting a home or condominium can make your next vacation less expensive and more luxurious.

Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

The Day Ahead: Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Productivity
Posted To: MBS CommentaryInterest rates are modestly higher this morning after equities closed nearly 3% higher Wednesday. Ninety minutes before the opening bell, S&P 500 futures are just below yesterday’s high at 1081.25 and the benchmark 10-year Treasury note is -0-04 at 100-09 yielding 2.593% (+1.3%). The October delivery FNCL 4.0 is -0-02 at 102-27. A busy economics calendar carries the potential to shift market sentiment in the day ahead. At 8:30, initial jobless claims are anticipated to rise 2k to show that 475,000 Americans filed for first-time unemployment benefits in the final week of August. The labor news comes one day before the official monthly numbers are released. The report should give further context to yesterday’s mixed data the ADP report showed 10k private jobs disappeared in the month…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

New Mortgage Rate Lows Lost as Stocks Rally and Bonds Correct
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates had a great day yesterday. This is the message we communicated to readers… ATTENTION: Mortgage Rates Hit New Lows If you’ve been floating your loan or have yet to apply for a refinance because it just didn’t seem worth the hassle, congratulations, mortgage rates hit new lows today, it’s now worth the hassle! If you’ve refinanced in the last 20 months, there is a darn good chance your refinance option is back in the money, again! The best 30 year fixed mortgage rates have fallen into the 4.125% to 4.375% range for well-qualified consumers. Some lenders will even go as low as 3.875% if the borrower is willing to pay points. Although the 4.125% quote isn’t being offered by the large retail banks (sorry retail L.Os), the smaller mortgage bankers and independent brokers do have…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

2010 Bankruptcies Top 1 Million
Consumer bankruptcy filings during August fell 8 percent from July, the American Bankruptcy Institute reported. The decline followed a bounce in July. Year-to-date Aug. 31, 2010, filings totaled 1,034,843.

Employment Situation Report: -54K Total Job Losses. Private Sector Adds 67k Positions. Bonds Sell
Posted To: MBS CommentaryTHE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION – AUGUST 2010 – BETTER THAN EXPECTED From the Release… Nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-54,000) in August, and the unemployment rate was about unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment fell, as 114,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+67,000). The number of unemployed persons (14.9 million) and the unemployment rate (9.6 percent) were little changed in August. From May through August, the jobless rate remained in the range of 9.5 to 9.7 percent. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) declined by 323,000 over the month to 6.2 million . In August, 42…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

The Day Ahead: August Employment Data to Drive Markets
Posted To: MBS CommentaryMarkets are roughly flat Friday morning ahead of the widely anticipated employment report for August, which at 8:30 eastern time is set to show that jobs declined for the third straight month. Ninety minutes before the opening bell, the S&P 500 is down 0.75 to 1,089.00. The 10 year Treasury note is -0-07 at 99-25 yielding 2.65% (+2.5bps) and the October deliver FNCL 4.0 is -0-02 at 102-22. The employment report is anticipated to show that 100,000 jobs were lost last month, though the decline relates to disappearing Census jobs rather than another dip. Still, private payrolls should increase a modest 41,000, according to economists polled by Reuters, and manufacturing jobs should be up by 10,000. “Unfortunately, whatever we see privately probably gets fully offset by other public sector…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

All Signs Point to Higher Rates in Week Ahead
Posted To: MBS CommentaryNFP has come and gone, let’s see where things stand…. The October delivery FNCL 4.0 is -0-09 at 102-15. In the chart below I called attention to a few technical inflection points. The ascending trend channel that helped mortgage rates hit new lows on Wednesday has broken down and FNCL 4.0s have made their way back into the range that moderated price action for the majority of August. The falling knife found support and bounced higher directly in the middle of that range. 10s flagged lower for the entire month of August (all summer really) and are now flagging higher. The 2.625% coupon bearing 10 year TSY note is off its session price lows (98-24) at 99-07 yielding 2.715% (+8.8bps). 10s are the worst spot on the curve followed by 7s (+8.6bps) and the long bond (+7.6bps). Volume was heavy into…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Litany of Investor Bulletins: Mortgage Insurance, Appraisal Photos, Originator IDs, Incomplete GFEs, 203(b)’s, Reserve Requirements, No More ARMs
Posted To: Pipeline PressIt’s good to know the jumbo market is alive and well! Alive and well for Tiger Woods who just got a residential construction loan for $54.5 million on Jupiter Island in Florida, which he agreed to pay back by January 2016. Of course, folks like pediatricians are having trouble finding an 80% loan for a few million, as are self-employed borrowers like architects, CPA’s, or sail makers. But there is hope! (No, I don’t know the lender or the terms) OK, here goes, in no particular order, the very recent investor changes (skip to the bottom if uninterested). As always, readers should examine the bulletins themselves, but this will give you a flavor for what is happening: Fannie Mae told servicers that it updated the allowable foreclosure time frames in the states of FL, MD, NV, and NY, is monitoring…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

The Day Ahead: Stocks Rally Ahead of Jobs, Manufacturing Data
Posted To: MBS CommentaryThe first day of September looks to open strongly while investors await key data on employment and manufacturing. About ninety minutes before the opening bell, S&P 500 futures are up nearly 12 points to 1,060 and Dow futures are jumping 75 points higher at 10,081. Interest rates are moving higher in the wake of improved sentiment in equities. The 10 year Treausry note is -0-10 at 101-01 yielding 2.507%. The October delivery FNCL 4.0 is -0-02 at 103-05. European stocks are also about 1.5% higher and Asian markets finished stronger (a notable exception being China’s Shanghai index, which fell 0.6%). At 8:15, the ADP Employment Report is anticipated to show that 18,000 private jobs were created in August, according to economists polled by Reuters. Investors will be watching the numbers…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Bond Market Suffers as Investors Reallocate Funds into Riskier Assets
Posted To: MBS CommentaryStocks are rallying and the bond market is taking a beating after a much better than expected read on the manufacturing sector. The August ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 56.3 vs. economist estimates for a read of 53.0. The “Prices” index rose 4 points to 61.5 from 57.5, quelling deflationary fears and giving bond traders a reason to fade the rally. Stocks were up before 10am data but didn’t take flight until after ISM flashed. S&P futures are currently up 27 handles at 1075.25. The bull flattener is unwinding again. The 2s/10s curve is 9bps steeper at 209bps. The long bond is 14.7bps higher at 3.668%. The 7-year note is +12.5bps at 2.046%. The 10yr note is +12.3bps at 2.593%. Volume was heavy into the downtrade. Although production MBS coupons are performing much better than their benchmark…(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Surprise Increase in Mortgage Jobs
The number of mortgage jobs was up by 2,300 positions in July, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Department of Labor. Headcount in “real estate credit” was up by nearly 3,000 jobs. But “mortgage and nonmortgage loan brokers” saw their numbers decline by around 500 positions, the government data indicated.

2010 Bankruptcies Top 1 Million
Consumer bankruptcy filings during August fell 8 percent from July, the American Bankruptcy Institute reported. The decline followed a bounce in July. Year-to-date Aug. 31, 2010, filings totaled 1,034,843.

Rate trends and firecrackers
A reader named Cindy asks: “Are mortgage rates predicted to go down next week? What things should I be considering before going ahead?”

Public Debate on Revisions to FHA Guidelines
The public was invited on July 15 to comment on three U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development initiatives designed to help restore the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund capital reserve account. More than 900 comments were received by the comment deadline on Aug. 16, a public filing Friday said. The “overwhelming majority” of the comments addressed the proposed 3 percent limitation on seller concessions.

5 keys to automatic retirement plans
If you’re saving for retirement, know these five things about automatic enrollment 401(k) plans.

Foreclosures? Let ‘em rent
In response to my blog post from last week, “Theodicy and mortgages,” Michael Hilmen writes about artificially high home prices.

Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.